— Analysis

  1. Public finance

    Tweaking the deficit may avoid a VAT increase next year

    by Dino Pesole

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    The road toward greater budget flexibility in Europe in 2018 is set to pass through a revision of deficit targets. This is how Italy may be able to avoid a hike in value-added tax (VAT) which is set to kick in next year, and may be able to achieve greater room for “expansive” budget measures to boost growth. Now that the Italian government has received the green light from the EU Commission for its 2017 accounts, it is starting to ...

  2. Business and economy

    Falcone's motto "follow the money" still potent tool against Mafia on 25th anniversary of his murder

    by Roberto Galullo

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    The investigative legacy of the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s “great friend” Giovanni Falcone -- the anti-Mafia magistrate whose motto was “follow the money”-- continues to live on at the FBI twenty-five years after the massacre in Sicily on May 23 in which Falcone lost his life, along with his wife and his three-man police escort. Falcone’s method is still relevant today, said Kieran ...

  3. Politics

    Italy risks ungovernability without a new electoral law by February 2018 vote (an almost impossible task)

    by Andrea Marini

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    “There is no more time to lose on the electoral law,” former Italian premier and the newly confirmed secretary of the left-leaning Democratic Party (PD) Matteo Renzi has said. He has always considered the electoral law an issue that concerns the experts. But at the same time, he knows that the approval of a new voting system before the legislature finishes (in February 2018) is the only option to not consign the country to ...

  4. Business and economy

    Fear of the future: Italy is poorer and more unequal

    by Alberto Orioli

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    The colors and brushstrokes of statistics are no longer capable of accurately portraying Italy: a country that’s stagnant, frozen, unequal, and polarized. It is perhaps due to this reason that ISTAT’s 2017 Report on Italy has fully availed itself of conceptual sociological tools like never before. Italy is stuck due to its inability to get its vital energies flowing, energies that are tied to greedy dynamics from generation to ...

  5. European view

    Euro, the big defeat for the economics profession

    by Alberto Bagnai

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    The euro has been the greatest success of economic science but is becoming the most humiliating defeat for the economics profession. I thank Il Sole 24 Ore for it openness in allowing me to set ...

  6. Markets

    BTP Italia's 11th issuance kicks off smoothly, aiming to attract retail and institutional demand

    by Isabella Bufacchi

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    Italian savers’ favorite inflation-linked bond, BTP Italia, kicked off its eleventh issuance yesterday, May 15, with 6-year maturity, a guaranteed minimum annual (real) coupon rate set at 0.45% and €1.615 bn orders with 29,000 contracts from retail investors: small savers will have up to Wednesday to book their orders, which will be totally filled by the Treasury. On Thursday it will be the turn ...

  7. Public finance

    EU Commission expressing doubts over Italian economic growth

    by Dino Pesole

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    Beyond the decimals that separate estimates from Rome and Brussels for Italy's public finances, the economic forecasts released yesterday from the European Commission also point to a gloomier outlook for growth in Italy, which remains the straggler in Europe. In Brussels' view, Italy's economic growth will not exceed 0.9% this year, while the government is targeting a 1.1% rise. Political uncertainty is weighing, ...

  8. European view

    Italy unfit for the Eurozone?

    by Paul De Grauwe

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    Italy’s economic performance since it joined the Eurozone has been dismal. GDP per capita of Italy is now lower than at the start of the Eurozone in 1999. This means that the Italian ...

  9. Politics

    The PD's new path, after Macron's election and the renewal of Renzi's leadership

    by Mariolina Sesto

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    Emmanuel Macron's election as president in France and the Italian Democratic Party's (PD) assembly yesterday are two events which have launched a new path for Italy’s main governing party. Macron's victory cannot fail to influence the policies of party leader Matteo Renzi, who voters have now picked to run the PD again. The convinced Europeanism of the new French president – of whom Renzi was a big supporter during the electoral ...

  10. Markets

    Macron's victory: a game changer for Italy sovereign risk?

    by Isabella Bufacchi

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    The euro area market focus is shifting from France to Italy, holding the hope that Emmanuel Macron’s victory will become a game changer for Italy’s stubbornly high sovereign risk. After digesting Brexit and Grexit with some hic ups, after getting rid of Frexit and coming to terms with Trumpism, markets are bound to re-open the Italian file as Italy’s unresolved political turbulence and populism continue to mix up with high public ...

  11. Politics

    The three problems that Italy has to face after Macron's victory in France

    by Guido Gentili

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    The victory of the “re-founder” Emmanuel Macron has led to a sigh of relief across Europe, which looked at the French presidential election as if it were a referendum on its destiny. But that is not all. In a country like Italy, where the tendency to identify with the victor of the moment is increasing, Macron’s rapid rise to the Elysée Palace poses three significant problems to our country. Firstly, on the theme of a ...

  12. European view

    What if leaving the euro became inevitable?

    by Emiliano Brancaccio

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    Staying in or leaving the euro has been a frequent (and often poorly-discussed) topic in recent years. From the free-flowing opinions of armchair commentators to principled ...

  13. European view

    What if leaving the euro became inevitable?

    by Emiliano Brancaccio

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    Staying in or leaving the euro has been a frequent (and often poorly-discussed) topic in recent years. From the free-flowing opinions of armchair commentators to principled ...

  14. European view

    What the euro is doing for you

    by Tarek A. Hassan

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    Many of us have fond memories of the time before the euro. I was in a German high school in the late 1990s. I remember spending long days at the local lake and evenings with friends in beer ...

  15. Politics

    Matteo Renzi's comeback and the aces up PM Gentiloni's sleeve

    by Roberto D'Alimonte

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    Mutatis mutandis, with the Italian Democratic Party’s primaries, we’ve gone back in time to December 2013. Matteo Renzi was clobbering his competition back then, too. Back then the PD was in power, with Enrico Letta serving as Prime Minister . And a crucial electoral campaign was looming on the horizon then, too: the European elections, scheduled for May 2014. Back then, the Constitutional Court’s sentence ...

  16. European view

    History doesn't run in reverse

    by Barry Eichengreen

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    A good case can be made that creating the euro and Italy's participation were both historic mistakes. The problem, we now know, is that monetary union without banking union and ...

  17. Business and economy

    It is a very bad idea to go for brain surgery when you have a tummy ache

    by Charles Wyplosz

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    Italy’s economy has a lot of problems, but the euro is not one of them. Its economic growth has been nil since 2001, just after the euro was adopted, but it is plain wrong to believe that this disastrous result is the consequence of having given the lira up. Like many other countries, Italy can thrive within the Eurozone, provided it solves its problems. Like many other countries, Italy can shrivel outside the Eurozone, as long ...

  18. European view

    Reconsidering the Euro for Italy

    by Martin Feldstein

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    Although Italy was an enthusiastic adopter of the euro when the single currency began, the Italian experience of the past decade suggests that was a mistake. Real GDP in Italy is actually ...

  19. Government policies

    EU Cohesion Policy's effectiveness under scrutiny, risks for the next period of budget planning

    by Giuseppe Chiellino

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    Per-capita income at purchasing power parity fell slightly across the board in southern Italian regions between 2012 and 2015. The one exception was Basilicata, thanks to the strong recovery in the automotive sector. Per-capita regional gross domestic product (GDP) is the main yardstick used up to now to evaluate the effectiveness of the European Union’s Cohesion Policy, about €350 billion destined towards fostering cohesion and ...

  20. Politics

    Government working on bridge loan for Alitalia while it looks for new partners for airline

    by Giorgio Santilli

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    The Italian government is taking a few extra days to draw up an exit strategy and a stop-gap solution for stricken airliner Alitalia, after employees rejected a rescue plan for the company. Several questions interweave on the negotiating table, all dramatic but with different time horizons. The first and most urgent question to respond to - together with the selection of 2-3 administrators with Luigi Gubitosi and Enrico Laghi seen as the most ...

  21. Business and economy

    Why we need to improve Europe's architecture

    by Lorenzo Codogno & Giampaolo Galli

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    We agree with Franco Debenedetti (in the April 19 article published by Italy24) , that you cannot separate the discussion on the costs and benefits of the euro from that of the costs of a transition, or from a wider debate of a political and prospective nature. As written in the appeal by the 24 Nobel Prize winners, including Joseph Stiglitz, against the political manipulation of French far right populist Marine Le Pen, there is a big difference ...

  22. Public finance

    Brussels has three questions for Rome on public finances

    by Beda Romano

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    The European Commission is due to deliver its verdict on Italy's economic situation in three weeks. Attention is focused on three main areas. Not only the additional budget measures of €3.4 billion approved yesterday by President Sergio Mattarella for 2017 are in doubt. The Commission is also looking at declining levels of investments in 2016. And it views the rescue of troubled lender Monte dei Paschi di Siena as a top ...

  23. Politics

    "Responsible" parties vs "anti-system populism:" the Italian case

    by Manuela Perrone

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    “Responsible” traditional parties are facing off with anti-system movements. As Italy heads for elections in 2018, with an electoral law to write after the Constitutional Court’s rejection of the Italicum, this completely new contest could be in the cards. No longer the Right fighting the Left for centrist votes, which tip the balance in a country that has been governed by the Christian Democrats for half a century. ...

  24. European view

    Return to the Lira? A long-run view

    by John H Cochrane

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    Should Italy have her own currency, and run her own monetary policy? For today, let’s focus on the long-run question, leaving out for now the transition and any immediate ...