— Analysis

  1. Politics

    Italy-France crisis on the STX shipyard: what would happen if Italy behaved like this?

    by Andrea Goldstein

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    Everybody loses. No other reaction seems possible to the decision to nationalize STX France Shipyard, rather than backing the decision of the Seoul tribunal to transfer the shipyard to Italy’s Fincantieri, an investor that French President Emmanuel Macron has judged “problematic.” Despite the first enthusiastic reactions in France – previously there were fears that the young president was a big privatiser and now he turns out to be a ...

  2. Politics

    Libya and North Africa, the Sarraj-Haftar agreement reinforces only Macron

    by Alberto Negri

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    Libya began as an Italian colony with the 1934 unification between Tripolitania and Cyrenaica and ended in 2011 with the fall of Muammar Gaddafi, after 42 years of dictatorship, becoming a sort of “global colony” conditioned by the influence of external powers and by uncontrollable local actors. It is highly probable that this scenario will not be modified either by the meeting in La Celle Saint Cloud just outside Paris, between Tripoli president ...

  3. Business and economy

    This is why Bolloré is in a rush to tighten his grip on Telecom

    by Antonella Olivieri

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    Why does Vivendi Chairman Vincent Bolloré feel the need to further strengthen his grip on Telecom, even though he appointed his chief executive Arnaud de Puyfontaine as executive president to work alongside the CEO Flavio Cattaneo, who has now left after just 16 months? The risk is that – between Mediaset and Telecom – the Italian campaign of the French businessman transforms into a bad defeat for him. If the only way to get out of the ...

  4. Politics

    Berlusconi, a phoenix rising from the ashes ahead of Italy's upcoming elections

    by Manuela Perrone

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    Between an Italian left which is increasingly in crisis and a liquid and post-ideological populism which is struggling to put down roots across the country – the third pole of Italian politics is enjoying a comeback. Silvio Berlusconi is the phoenix that keeps rising from the ashes. Due to turn 81 on September 29, the media mogul leader of the Forza Italia party has returned on the crest of a wave. Many among the center-right are responding to ...

  5. European view

    Britain's European ties that bind

    by Ana Palacio*

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    Since the official start of Brexit negotiations last month, attention has been focused largely on the most contentious issues: how much the United Kingdom owes to the European Union, ...

  6. Politics

    When populism can kill

    by Domna Michailidou* and Jonathan Kennedy**

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    Unfounded skepticism about vaccines in some communities, in developing and developed countries alike, has emerged in recent years as one of the most serious impediments to global progress in public health. Indeed, it is one of the primary reasons why eradicable infectious diseases persist today. For example, the effort to eradicate polio worldwide has been disrupted in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Nigeria, where rule by Islamist militants ...

  7. Business and economy

    Is Productivity Growth Becoming Irrelevant?

    by Adair Turner*

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    As the Nobel laureate economist Robert Solow noted in 1987, computers are “everywhere but in the productivity statistics.” Since then, the so-called productivity paradox has become ever more striking. Automation has eliminated many jobs. Robots and artificial intelligence now seem to promise (or threaten) yet more radical change. Yet productivity growth has slowed across the advanced economies; in Britain, labor is no ...

  8. Government policies

    Italian public administration fails Oxford University's exams

    by Mirco Tonin* and Francesco Trebbi**

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    One of the biggest lost opportunities of former Italian premier Matteo Renzi’s government was the reform of the civil service, data from recent studies show. On a scale in which 100 is the technological frontier of how a public administration can manage regulation of an advanced country, human resources, incentives, public services and transparency of decision processes (Canada and New Zealand came out on top), Italy is at 20. The ...

  9. Public finance

    Italy-Europe, the break Matteo Renzi is calling for

    by Guido Gentili

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    Former Italian premier Matteo Renzi’s “big break” has been developing for a while, since the Autumn of 2016 and well before the referendum rejecting constitutional reform that led him to resign three years after his major victory at the 2014 European elections. And today the leader of the left-leaning Democratic Party (PD) presents this break. It is a big one that hits the relationship between Italy and Europe. In black and ...

  10. European view

    The Inflation Target Trap

    by Daniel Gros

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    Central banks have a problem: growth in much of the world is accelerating, but inflation has failed to take off. Of course, for most people, growth without inflation is the ideal ...

  11. Politics

    What Future for Global Leadership?

    by Harold James

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    With global leadership now in question, the G20’s upcoming summit in Hamburg on July 7-8 could be the group’s tensest meeting ever. The summit process long pre-dates the G20’s founding in 1999. It was originally designed, in the 1970s, to align major economies’ domestic policies, thereby reducing uncertainty. But domestic politics have now created a new type of uncertainty. Whereas the international community ...

  12. Business and economy

    Italy's banking industry, systemic risks have been removed but recovery is not yet completed

    by Morya Longo

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    After the Italian government made up to €17 billion available in order to save the Veneto banks and €5.4 billion to refinance MPS, after Popolare Etruria and the other banks were “sorted out”, after having troubled numerous savers, after the Atlante Fund’s interventions, after the capital increases and while waiting for large divestitures of non-performing loans, now —the day after the European Commission ...

  13. European view

    Europe's foresight and the destiny of the euro

    by Luigi Zingales

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    The first phase of the debate on the euro showed how the single currency is above all a political choice. In a democracy, political choices can be changed by voters. Can we therefore ...

  14. Government policies

    E-invoices and spending review aimed at finding room for a structural cut in the tax wedge for young people

    by Dino Pesole

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    The objective, in line with the commitment taken days ago by Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni, is to try to increase the room available in the next budget package to prioritize a more significant cut in the tax wedge (the difference between what a worker costs an employer and what the worker receives in their pay packet) for young people. The Economy Ministry is looking at how it can carry this out, and the scenarios being studied include an ...

  15. Politics

    Local elections, the center-right picked up the winning ticket

    by Roberto D'Alimonte

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    Local elections are often a type of lottery, above all when voter turnout is especially low, as happened in Italy on Sunday. This time the winning ticket was picked up by the center-right. It governed six of 25 provincial capitals before the vote and now it will govern 16. But what counts the most is that it triumphed in some “trophy” cities: Genoa, Pistoia, and Milan’s Sesto San Giovanni. These are traditionally ...

  16. Business and economy

    Veneto banks intervention is EU rules-proof, Rome is not Madrid

    by Marco Onado

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    The painful story of the two Veneto banks, officially in liquidation yesterday, is emblematic of the delicate situation of Italian banks, exacerbated by a European regulatory and supervisory framework that, as facts are proving, is turning out to be thornier than Procrustes’ bed. The situation has deteriorated since the European regulator expressed skepticism about the possibility of putting the recovery plan prepared by the new managers in ...

  17. Business and economy

    Understanding the productivity puzzle

    by Howard Davies*

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    In all major economies, the so-called productivity puzzle continues to perplex economists and policymakers: output per hour is significantly lower than it would have been had the pre-2008 growth trend continued. The figures are stark, particularly so in the United Kingdom, but also across the OECD. And while it goes without saying that economists have many ingenious explanations to offer, none has yet proved persuasive enough to create a ...

  18. European view

    Britain's Norway solution

    by Anatole Kaletsky

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    Shortly after UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s decision to call an unexpected “Brexit election,” I wrote that pro-Europeans in Britain might yet snatch victory from the jaws ...

  19. European view

    The Eurozone's hidden strength

    by Daniel Gros

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    For years, the eurozone has been perceived as a disaster area, with discussions of the monetary union's future often centered on a possible breakup. When the British voted to leave ...

  20. European view

    Vive l'Euro?

    by Lucrezia Reichlin

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    Emmanuel Macron’s victory in the French presidential election on May 7 triggered a surge of optimism about the future of the European Union, and the eurozone in particular. This is ...

  21. Markets

    From bank loans to capital markets union, Europe builds bridge finance: mini-bonds and Schuldschein

    by Isabella Bufacchi

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    On the one side, bank deleveraging is reducing credit flows to the economy. On the other side, the creation of the Capital Markets Union is gaining momentum but it is a slow moving process. That’s why Europe needs bridge finance products, the “economics of private placements”, that is, hybrid instruments that help SMEs in the not-so-easy transition from bank loans to equity or bond public issues. Italy and Germany ...

  22. European view

    The Eurozone must reform or die

    by Kenneth Rogoff

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    With the election of a reform-minded centrist president in France and the re-election of German Chancellor Angela Merkel seeming ever more likely, is there hope for the stalled ...

  23. Business and economy

    Thanks to foreigners, the fall in births and increase in elderly people in Italy is slightly less of a worry

    by Alessia Tripodi

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    There were 96,000 fewer Italian residents in 2016, but the number of foreigners is rising, which now make up 8% of the population at the national level. Meanwhile the fall in births underway since 2008 is not stopping: for the second consecutive year births are below half a million. These figures were revealed by Italian national statistics office ISTAT as it presented an update on the demographic situation in Italy yesterday. The study ...

  24. Politics

    M5S grinds to a halt in Italian local elections but the race for the national vote is still open

    by Barbara Fiammeri

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    It is always misleading to extend the results of local elections to the situation at the national level. But after the first round of voting in 1,004 Italian municipalities on Sunday, the fact the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement (M5S) was excluded from all run-offs in the main cities calls for some reflection. Reflection that is already underway within the party, which are also reckoning with the orthodox wing accusing the ...

  25. Markets

    Markets focusing on Italy's debt sustainability, yet again

    by Isabella Bufacchi

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    Italy’s debt sustainability ghost is hovering over financial markets, yet again. “All scenarios are back on the table,” said an analyst commenting on UK’s surprise election results and Italy’s surprising setback on the electoral law reform . One of the worst case scenarios being analyzed by market participants worldwide is Italy’s political landscape and the risk of an upward trend of debt/GDP ratio, which hit ...

  26. European view

    EU economy needs advanced capital markets

    by Valdis Dombrovskis and Jyrki Katainen

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    It’s springtime and Europe’s economy is flourishing. The EU’s economy is growing for the fifth year in a row, a trend that is set to continue this year and next. But ...

  27. Markets

    The rescue of Banco Popular, a lesson that Italy has to study

    by Alessandro Graziani

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    The emergency bank rescue of Banco Popular in Spain on the part of its rival Santander highlights how decisive the time factor is for preventing a bank crisis from becoming systemic and undermining the confidence of depositors. In just a few weeks, the government and Spanish authorities reached agreement with the European Central Bank and the European Commission and together activated an emergency plan that, in full respect of EU rules and without recourse to ...

  28. Business and economy

    Qatar says will continue to invest in Italy

    by Carlo Festa and Simone Filippetti

    IT
    24 Exclusive content for IT24

    Qatar Holding is ready to invest in Italy and new transactions in Europe. The decision by Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates to break off diplomatic relations with Qatar, triggered in a few hours in the Middle East, does not seem to change (at least for now) the financial strategy of the small Gulf country in the Old World. Sources close to the Doha government say that “other interesting operations in Italy will ...